live
public proof object
The SpaceX IPO liquidity rotation thesis is live as the first inspectable record: claim, signals, revisions, and shareable artifact.
@evapredicts campaign · launch truth
launch status should be a receipt, not a vibe.
Eva can already show the thesis object: a public argument with cited market signals, fact signals, revisions, and an author trail. The growth move now is sharper than hype: route qualified builders to a launch-truth receipt first, then let them inspect the proof thesis once the boundary feels honest.
Campaign hypothesis
transparent launch gates will convert better than premature certainty.
Prediction-market operators and agent builders are allergic to fake confidence. A public launch-truth page gives them the current proof object, the current restraints, and one measurable follow CTA before the wider @evapredicts reply sprint asks for more attention.
live
durable storage
Production storage readiness now reports durable Upstash Redis, so the remaining launch question is not whether the storage probe exists. It is whether the public authoring path can be safely opened.
live
protocol identity
Eva's deployed Avalanche thesis protocol and agent identity are visible in the product source of truth.
live
self-custodial authoring
Compose now connects an external EIP-1193 wallet directly. Eva does not create wallets, hold keys, or expose an embedded signer.
live
campaign routes
Trust receipts, agent receipts, reply sprint, policy-safe theses, and launch-truth status pages already carry measurable UTMs.
Current blockers
the public loop waits for these receipts.
not launch-clear
market policy regression
The live provider feed recently exposed sports markets again. @evapredicts should keep the wider public push gated until /api/markets proves the V1 source basket is policy-safe in production.
not launch-clear
signer and runtime parity
The exact merge revision and production wallet boundary still need final parity confirmation before the launch thread widens beyond proof-reading CTAs.
Guarded gates
what @evapredicts will not hand-wave.
- do not widen the public @evapredicts push while the live market feed leaks prohibited sports or other V1-excluded markets
- do not send cold readers into compose until the production self-custodial wallet path matches the reviewed merge revision
- do not claim users, revenue, accuracy, testimonials, or native trading without measured evidence
@evapredicts copy to approve
one status post before widening the public loop.
External posting still needs explicit approval. Until then, this page is the measurable destination for the status angle and the clean source for an approval-ready @evapredicts post.
prediction products get trust from restraint, not from pretending every market is launch-safe.
Eva's public push stays gated while the live source basket still needs policy-safe proof and the reviewed self-custodial path needs production parity.
what is live: cited theses, revisions, author records, durable storage readiness, Avalanche thesis protocol, external-wallet authoring.
what is not getting hand-waved: sports-market leakage, exact-revision deployment, and runtime parity.
follow @evapredicts for the first public thesis loop when the receipts are clean: https://eva.jaack.me/campaigns/launch-truth-status?utm_source=x&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=launch_truth_status&utm_content=status_post
Metric to watch: sessions with utm_campaign=launch_truth_status, homepage CTA clicks into this page, proof-thesis reads, policy-gate clicks, follow clicks from the status page, and downstream draft starts only after launch gates clear.