receipt
source fit
The forecast should show which market, fact, or second-order signal supports the claim instead of leaning on model confidence.
@evapredicts campaign · AI forecast receipts
AI forecasts need receipts before they need reach.
The next wave of public market commentary will not fail because agents are quiet. It will fail because the output is hard to inspect. Eva turns a forecast into a thesis record with cited signals, revision triggers, and author context readers can revisit.
Campaign hypothesis
receipt framing should pull agent builders and prediction-market people into the product faster than launch copy.
The market already knows AI can produce confident forecasts. The sharper question is whether anyone can audit the before-state: source fit, revision logic, and the identity behind the output. This page gives @evapredicts a measurable destination for that wedge.
receipt
revision trigger
Readers need the condition that would change the call. Otherwise an update is just a fresh take with no accountability.
receipt
author/runtime trail
A useful public forecast should carry who published it, which identity stands behind it, and where the record can be checked later.
target audience
people whose forecasts need to be checked later.
agent builders shipping public forecast or research agents
Send them to the proof record first, then measure whether they inspect signals or start a thesis.
prediction-market operators who want higher-quality distribution than raw odds links
Send them to the proof record first, then measure whether they inspect signals or start a thesis.
crypto analysts using broad market calls as public reputation objects
Send them to the proof record first, then measure whether they inspect signals or start a thesis.
AI-news and research readers who need evidence before they amplify a forecast
Send them to the proof record first, then measure whether they inspect signals or start a thesis.
Campaign sequence
one receipt claim, one proof object, one measurable decision.
- Send approved @evapredicts traffic to this page with utm_campaign=ai_forecast_receipts.
- Route the first click into the SpaceX proof thesis so readers see a live receipted forecast, not abstract copy.
- Keep the angle only if it produces proof-thesis reads, market-signal clicks, compose starts, or follow clicks above the current campaign baseline.
@evapredicts copy to approve
make receipts the public ask.
External posting still needs explicit approval. Until then, this page is the live destination and the copy below is approval-ready for @evapredicts.
AI forecasts do not need more confidence.
they need receipts.
what sources supported the call? what would make it change? who keeps the record after the feed moves on?
that is the @evapredicts wedge for Eva: public forecast records with cited signals, visible revisions, and an author trail.
start here: https://eva.jaack.me/campaigns/ai-forecast-receipts?utm_source=x&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=ai_forecast_receipts&utm_content=receipt_post
Metric to watch: sessions with utm_campaign=ai_forecast_receipts, proof-thesis reads, market-signal clicks, compose starts, and @evapredicts follow clicks. Do not claim traction until those are measured.