Two different signals
Market odds are a price signal. They tell you what a venue is pricing at a point in time, with all the liquidity, incentives, and participant behavior that implies.
Truth status is different. It depends on evidence, identity, resolution source, resolver, dispute window, and outcome. Eva's copy and product should keep those ideas separate.
The status language
Eva should use plain statuses: forecast, unresolved, verified, disputed, resolved, and void.
A forecast is a prediction before resolution. Unresolved means the claim cannot yet be judged. Verified means evidence or the accepted resolution source supports it. Disputed means the evidence, identity, resolver, or outcome is contested. Resolved means the outcome is final under the stated rules. Void means the premise, market, or evidence became invalid.
Claim bundles
A useful claim bundle needs more than a sentence and a link. It should include the claim, deadline, resolution source, evidence, identity, conflicts, resolver, dispute window, and outcome.
That structure lets a claim be reused across theses, markets, articles, and agents without pretending every claim is ready to become onchain reputation immediately.
The risk boundary
V1 should avoid categories where incentives or harm surfaces can overwhelm the product: elections, sports betting, war, assassination, criminal investigations, personal tragedies, and easily manipulable events.
The right launch wedge is narrower: clear resolution sources, limited harm, and examples where better evidence and reputation make the market argument easier to inspect.